Friday, December 28, 2012

Oscar Predictions 2013: Take One

So, it is semi-early for me to predicting the Oscars, but oh well. Last year when I predicted them around this time I actually did pretty well. I correctly named all of the Best Picture nominees months prior to when they were announced. I was excited about that by the way. So, I'm going to take a crack at it again this year. The main thing I am doing is predicting the nominees. I will also give a guess on who will win the Oscar. This is more of a guess than a prediction because there are no "true" frontrunners in most of the categories. We usually find out who the frontrunners are around late January to early February. But, let's get started shall we. Here are my predictions for the major categories. 

Best Picture

Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Les Miserables

Okay, so because of the changes that were made for last year's Oscars there is no way for us to know how many films will be nominated for Best Picture. Right now, I'm thinking either seven or eight. If it is seven then I think Moonrise Kingdom will be knocked out of the race. However, I think the two frontrunners are Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Now, right now I am leaning more towards Lincoln. There are two reasons why. First, it is the one that I've seen. Second, the Academy is full of mostly older voters and Lincoln looks like it is more their cup of tea in my opinion. But, Zero Dark Thirty is sweeping a good bit of the critics awards right now it seems. Which, by the way, The Social Network was doing the same thing two years ago and ended up losing to The King's Speech at the finish line. So, it could be a good race between these two politically-themed films. However, watch out for some films like Argo. That is another one that could sneak up and take the Oscar. But, I would like to The Perks of Being a Wallflower get nominated. I just have a feeling, though, that it doesn't have a large enough following with the Academy. 

Best Director

Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Ben Affleck for Argo
Tom Hooper for Les Miserables

Again, this is a race that we will find out more about later on in award season. I think it is between Spielberg and Bigelow at the moment and it is close probably. But, in reality it is all a toss-up right now. We will see who will be the true frontrunners later on, but right now I am saying Spielberg will take home his third Oscar for Directing. 

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes for The Sessions
Denzel Washington for Flight
Richard Gere for Arbitrage 

I personally believe four of these are locks for the nomination right now. I think the fifth spot will go to Richard Gere for Arbitrage. It could end up being Hugh Jackman though. The big surprise would be Joaquin Phoenix. We will have to find out. However, right now I do not see anyone beating Daniel Day-Lewis. He was that good. 

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
Naomi Watts for The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour

Possible Spoilers:
Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Mirren for Hitchcock

I think it could be Jessica Chastain's year, but there is one thing standing in her way: Jennifer Lawrence. I think the race is going to be between these two young talented actresses. Both of them will be getting their second nomination and I think one of them will be the one walking home with the Oscar. I'm leaning towards Chastain right now. 

Best Supporting Actor

Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook

Possible Spoiler:
Javier Bardem for Skyfall

My guess right now is Tommy Lee Jones because I have seen only Lincoln and Argo. I think Jones' performance is better than Arkin. But, this could be an interesting race. Right now, the person I want to see win is DiCaprio. Why? Because out of all of these actors, including Bardem, DiCaprio is the only one who has not won an Oscar. We will see what happens when we get closer to February. 

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field for Lincoln
Amy Adams for The Master
Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Nicole Kidman for The Paperboy

Possible Spoiler:
Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

I think Anne Hathaway is the sole frontrunner right now. As of right now, there is no doubt in my mind that Hathaway will take home the Oscar. When it comes to the nominations, this might be the most predictable category. However, the big surprise here is Kidman. All of sudden she has gained a lot of nominations from prestigious award ceremonies like Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globes. So, as of right now, I think she will slide in there, but Smith could be the spoiler in this race. 

Best Original Screenplay

Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty

I think the race right now will be between Moonrise Kingdom, Django Unchained, and Zero Dark Thirty. Right now, I am stating that Mark Boal will be taking home his second Oscar for writing. We will find out. However, Django or Moonrise Kingdom could take it home.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Possible Spoiler:
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (I hope this sneaks in there)

Tony Kushner is the favorite for his screenplay for Lincoln. I think Argo has a good chance as well. I hope, though, that Stephen Chbosky gets a nomination for his screenplay based off of his popular book The Perks of Being a Wallflower. It was a great book and a great movie.

Best Animated Feature

Wreck-It Ralph
Rise of the Guardians

This could be a fun race this year. It looks like Disney will have three films in the race, but I think only one of them will be a frontrunner. It could be Brave, but I think the frontrunner for the Disney team will be Frankenweenie. ParaNorman could be another one that comes up and takes home the Oscar, stealing one from the House of Mouse.

So, those are my predictions for now. Remember, I am mainly predicting who will be nominated. There isn't much to go off of on who will win, but I guessed. They were educated guesses and hopefully some of them will come true. If so, Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln will be the big winners. So, what are your thoughts? Who do you think should be nominated? Who shouldn't be nominated? Who should win? Tell me what you think.

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